The 2022 New York Giants are the 2017 Buffalo Bills. An administration in its first year, overperforming expectations on their (presumable) way to the wildcard round. A star running back leading the team in receptions. Not to mention, current Giants general manager Joe Schoen was Buffalo’s assistant general manager. New York’s new head coach, Brian Daboll, would come to Western New York a year later.
The most important parallel, of course, is the quarterback. Both teams found surprising success behind a quarterback with legitimate long-term questions. Tyrod Taylor managed a Buffalo offense with a 14:4 TD:INT ratio and won eight games on the Bills’ path to the playoffs. Daniel Jones holds a 10:4 ratio after the Thanksgiving festivities. Taylor now resides behind Jones on the depth chart.
Jones is halfway through a contract year. Most fourth-year passers leading their teams to a playoff spot aren’t too worried about the pending payday 💰. Jones is the exception to the rule. Despite the encouraging analytics, the surprising win totals, and objective progress in the turnover department, it has become abundantly clear that Jones is not the long-term answer in New York.
Much like the Bills of a half-decade ago, the Giants administration will be faced with keeping a quarterback that has won them games or bringing in a new face to lead the franchise. They won’t be picking in the top ten without a heavy forfeiture of assets. Lamar Jackson won’t don the blue and white. What are the next steps forward for New York?
Daniel Jones is not the guy
You probably didn’t need me to tell you that. Unless you are blindly following win-loss records or analytics like Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage Over Expected (Jones is top ten in both) it’s clear the Giants don’t have a franchise quarterback. Just don’t ask the fans in the blue face paint.
Perhaps the now-welcomed idea of a Jones extension is an ill-advised take on player development. There’s no question he’s having the best year of his young career. He’s managed the ball much better and has already ran for more yards than he has ever before in a season💨 . However, it’s important to question how a player succeeds before pushing the chips in.
Yes, New York has trot out some…inadequate receivers. The offensive line has only seen the injuries pile up. But the Daboll effect is real and affects our perception of the passer.
It’s easy to discredit Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts for being the beneficiaries of utopian supporting casts, but they’ve both made legitimate strides as passers since their rookie campaigns. Neither owe as much of their production to their coach as Jones, who I’m not convinced is operating this offense to its fullest potential.
For one, this is a Mickey Mouse offense if I’ve ever seen one. They’ve built the whole plane out of “man, that’s annoying to defend,” and while credit should be given where it’s due, it is not helpful in the pursuit of quarterback evaluation.
His Air Yards per Attempt (how far downfield he’s throwing the ball) ranks 28th of 31 qualified passers at 6.7 yards downfield (prior to Thursday’s loss). Surrounding him are quarterbacks captaining two different types of units: ones led by a Sean McVay-tree coach and ones that fundamentally are broken. It’s true that Daboll’s offense shares some similarities with McVay’s, but the on-field product seems more emblematic of the rest of those teams. They are yet to beat a top ten pass defense, too.
Additionally, I’m not moved by the lack of interceptions. He is asked to do far less between the ears than most NFL quarterbacks. The flurry of screens, three-step drops, and wildcat calls are symptoms of multiple issues–a lack of confidence in Jones being one of them. It should come as no surprise that Jones’ Air Yards to the Sticks (think Air Yards but with the first down marker as the line of scrimmage) is the third lowest in football at -2.5.
Daboll has done a fantastic job marrying his zone runs with max-protect play action (including post-cross and subsequent wrinkles) but none of it is taxing. That’s okay! They’re winning football games, for now. It’s just so woefully uninspiring when it comes to playing good teams.
Further, Jones lacks the talent to transcend to the league’s upper-echelon. His arm talent is below average, he’s not an elite runner, and he lacks the intangible super powers to make up for it. At his best, he’s the 17th-best quarterback in football. That’s not something you willingly sign up for. The Giants know they can’t win a Super Bowl 🏆 with him, but if it really comes down to just winning games, there are other passers better suited to take the reins while the wait for a franchise quarterback continues.
What options do the Giants have at quarterback?
If trading up for one of the draft’s darling prospects is out the window, veteran options are viable.
Of course, it’s largely fruitless to project offseason acquisition before the turkey’s been served, but Jones is going to get expensive quickly if they keep him around. For a team in cap hell, maximizing their passing production at a similar or cheaper price than Jones will be important.
If not re-signed, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith strikes me as the best fit for New York. In memorable fashion, he’s been a Giant and a Jet, and he’s finally proving himself to be a legitimate NFL quarterback. Unlike Jones, there is less gimmick in Smith’s game and a greater sense of confidence that his success is not a fluke. Jones has him beat in terms of pure athleticism, but Smith can move well enough for a Daboll offense to utilize and has the Duke product beat just about everywhere else.
While Jimmy Garoppolo 😍 will draw interest, the runner-up for a fit in East Rutherford is Jacoby Brissett. His stay with the Cleveland Browns has exceeded expectations. He’s not an ideal fit for the current offense given his inaccuracy and lack of mobility, but that doesn’t mean there’s not upside. Brissett stretches the field better than Jones and more readily attacks the intermediate areas. He’s been more efficient by the same metrics that like Jones and has kept Cleveland in games their defense tried to take them out of.
Most importantly, Brissett gives New York a chance at unlocking a more aggressive offensive attack. The ability to throw the Giants back into games gives them an improved chance at fighting off the regression that looms after their early-season streak of luck.
Whether it’s a rookie reset or a veteran upgrade (or a combination of both), New York is in need of an upgrade at the quarterback position. A Jones extension–regardless of length–is a stagnation for an organization that has no need for three years of 9-8 football. Just ask those Bills if nine wins is still acceptable. Finding a new franchise quarterback doesn’t end with bandages like Smith or Brissett, but they offer short-term ceilings Jones cannot, and will not, provide.
Are the Giants still a viable bet to make the playoffs?
Jones will find himself under center for New York, and much to the appeal of those typing #TogetherBlue, he may find himself playing meaningful January. DraftKings currently has them as a coin flip to make the playoffs, with -110 odds in either direction. You can use their unique promotion for BetBasics readers (BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS) regardless of your faith in the Giants.
With three consecutive division matchups headlining the remaining schedule, we’ll find out fairly quickly whether or not their playoff hopes are legitimate. At 7-4 and five “tough” games left on the ledger, I’m sad to report that the books have it right: this is a coin flip. They’ve shown themselves capable of winning games with Jones, but they aren’t getting healthier and things are getting ugly quick.
A better alternative would be to take a similar test of fate. The Washington Commanders to make the playoffs. With +120 odds, there’s $120 to be made on a $100 bet, and their chances are quite similar to their division rival’s. Given the discrepancy in odds, I’ll take the hotter team with a slightly easier schedule down the stretch. 🔥