If you’ve read any mock draft since the Super Bowl’s conclusion, it likely had a trade at the top. Mine had it on Monday, as did my elderly colleague, Lenn Robbins. We got it wrong though. Sure, the Chicago Bears traded down, but they did so with the Carolina Panthers, not the oft-mocked Indianapolis Colts.
In all, the Bears traded the first overall pick for 9, 61, a 2024 first-rounder, a 2025 second-rounder, and wide receiver DJ Moore. It’s a deal that has sent shockwaves throughout the draft and the betting market alike.
No longer are the odds centered around the Houston Texans or some general consensus. It’s Carolina’s draft, and the market reflects it.
How does this trade affect NFL Draft bets?
From a valuation standpoint, Chicago likely won this deal. A legitimately good receiver, Moore will immediately be their best skill position player in some time. Keeping a top 10 selection and two other premium picks isn’t a cataclysmic amount of draft capital, but a proven starter on a manageable contract alleviates any concerns there.
Subsequently, a few winners emerge. Justin Fields has a shiny new toy and has successfully averted a threat to his job. He’ll be well-positioned to break out next year, which means one of two things will occur. Either the Bears will have their first good quarterback…ever? Or Fields will be the next top pick to flame out when forced to pass against NFL defenses.
The second winner is Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. He has finally pulled ahead of seemingly runaway favorite Bryce Young, who hails from Alabama, to be the draft’s first pick.
There’s been significant movement in Stroud’s direction, and at FanDuel his odds currently reside at -320. That line means a $320 bet would net $100 in winnings if it were to hit.
Stroud’s rise can be attributed to a few factors, outside of the obvious trade. He’s likely a better fit in head coach Frank Reich’s system than Young. Stroud may be the best pure passer in the class, and even as the league turns to playmaking and athleticism, there will always be a spot for passers like Stroud. Additionally, the Panthers quarterback coach, Josh McCown, has documented his love for the Buckeye as well.
However, Stroud jumping out as a favorite doesn’t make him a lock for the number one overall selection. We can effectively pencil in Young to the Houston Texans. We cannot, however, rule out some other options to Carolina.
Florida’s Anthony Richardson has risen more than most this cycle thanks to his dazzling highlights and other-worldly physical tools. His quick game inconsistencies and chaotic footwork will scare teams, but everyone is tuning in at least once. If the Panthers fall in love with the higher-upside option, his +350 odds may come crashing into minus money.
The other option should be considered a long shot, but may be more likely than his +2200 odds suggest. Kentucky’s Will Levis resembles Carson Wentz, a former Reich student. His first stop with Wentz ended in a Super Bowl victory, his second in disarray. Both possess big arms, prototypical size, and a propensity for taking too many sacks. I’m not ready to rule out the possibility that Reich overrides McCown and others in the Carolina brass if he feels strongly enough about Levis.
Wherever this draft is headed, we should remember that mid-March odds don’t reflect reality. That aforementioned movement shouldn’t be nullified, but it is far too early to truly rule anyone out. If there’s a quarterback that sticks out as teal and black-bound, consider using FanDuel’s promotion for Bet Basics readers: UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS.