Unfortunately, Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will return to our televisions on Sunday. In an ill-fated scheduling coincidence, he’ll make his 2022 debut against the Houston Texans, in the very city his alleged crimes took place.
I could go on until I get carpal tunnel about how he shouldn’t be on the field, how the Browns are despicable for standing by his side, and how fans donning his jersey are despicable. Their support for Watson is a soul-selling endeavor that will last only as long as he’s successful, even if their poignant nature will cast a permanent shadow. Still, it begs the question, will his supporters get their wish, or be left with an offseason to repent?
Watson was elite
There’s no question Watson was a top-end quarterback while in Houston. It’s his talent that landed him a fully-guaranteed contract. It’s his talent that netted three first-round picks in a trade. It’s his talent that somehow, someway kept him in the league after two dozen allegations of sexual misconduct.
With that said, Watson will be tasked with acclimating himself to a new offense and roster. His practice reps have been slashed by suspension. He’ll have to find rhythm in an offense that has beat to Jacoby Brissett’s drum through #NFLWeek12’s action. Watson has not appeared in a game since the final week of the 2020 season. It’s fair to question just how quickly this offense will look like the Cleveland brass envisioned.
Too Little, Too Late?
Currently, Caesars is offering +125 odds on the Browns to win at least eight games. A successful $100 bet would win $125. For more on futures, make sure you check the Basic Tips section below this piece. If you want in on that action, be sure to use their promotion for BetBasics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
Currently sitting at 4-7 with six to play, Watson would have to lead Cleveland to a 4-2 record in order for that bet to hit. Thus, there’s a reason their playoff odds reside at approximately +1000. If he’s really going to save their season, he’ll almost certainly have to win at least five games. Five would exceed expectations, and four might, too.
Caesars is offering -145 on under 7.5 (pay $145 to win 100), and for good reason. Four wins will be hard to find if there are any bumps in the road. Three divisional games left and a matchup with the hot Washington Commanders make that even messier. Watson could be good, great even, and still fall short. The schedule is a little light for me to truly hammer under 7.5 wins, but these circumstances should scare you off the over, too.
Frankly, you’d be better off taking the Cincinnati Bengals’ +215 odds to win the AFC North than betting on the dirtbag in brown and jumpsuit orange. Baltimore can’t get out of its own way, and this Bengals team is lighting it up despite a laundry list of injuries.
BASIC TIPS
This article talks about futures bets, which are wagers on events that take place in the more distant future, such as championships, award winners, and season-long player props. The key to futures betting is timing. Too early, and you may not be operating with enough information to feel confident. Too late, and you may end up leaving money on the table.