The Loser must be a man and admit when he was wrong. Here goes:
The Loser is NOT wrong about Baker “The Commercial Maker” Mayfield. But all credit to The Commercial Maker for his truly amazing performance last week in rallying the Rams to a 17-16 win over the Raiders.
Baker had been with the Rams just long enough to cut a 30-second pitch. But when the Rams got the ball with 12:20 left, down 16-3, Mayfield led them on a 17-play, 76 yards for a touchdown that ignited the rally.
So now what? Does the traveling Commercial Maker (No.1 pick in2018 NFL Draft) get a shot with another team? There’s always some owner, or GM, or coach who thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. That’s why Mitch Trubisky (No.2 pick, 2019) and Carson Wentz (No.2 pick, 2016) keep getting second and third chances.
Mayfield (22-of-35 for 230 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 Ints) did what he does best. With his fireball personality (gotta admire the helmet-less head butt) and impressive skill set (he can scramble and make throws) he’s an attractive option – like a $19.99 Old Navy sweatshirt. It looks good until two washings.
Mayfield’s personality quickly turns from galvanizer to alienator and those mad-dash scrambles often lead to foolish throws. Mayfield will get the start Monday night when the Rams play at the Packers. He’ll complete a couple of throws, make a few mad dash runs and wear his emotions on his jersey like an advertisement.
But he’ll toss a pick or two, or lose a fumble, when he scrambles, and tries to squeeze one in. That Hamburger Hill commitment will slowly start to grate on teammates who realize it’s all about The Commercial Maker.
Before MayfieldMania goes into second gear, The Loser offers this warning to the smartest guy in the room: Don’t do it.
LOSER LOOK BACK – Last week’s “expert” advice in italics.
Raiders -6 over RAMS – Rams, 17-16 – Biggest reason why we like the Raiders? Rams just claimed Baker “The Commercial Maker” Mayfield off waivers. Humbled, not wrong.
BILLS -9 over Jets – Bills, 20-12 – The Bills Mafia doesn’t have to hire a hit man for the Jets offense. But they did. LB Matt Milano nearly cut Jets QB Mike White in half with that Luca Brasi-like hit.
COWBOYS -16 over Texans – Cowboys, 27-23 – Cowboys are ripe for a letdown and the Texans could salvage a modicum of respect this season by upsetting their instate rival. The ultimate Loser’s Lament. If I suspected this, why still take the Boys and give the points?
+TITANS -4 over Jaguars – Jags, 36-22 – It’s lines like this that make The Loser wonder if the fix is in. It’s results like this that make the Loser wonder if he has any clue.
Chiefs -9.5 over BRONCOS – Chiefs, 34-28 – Rocky Mountain Low. Indeed. Chiefs had the cover, up 27-0, before suffering altitude sickness. So did the Loser.
+ SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Panthers, Panthers, 30-24 – Seattle’s run defense is second worst in the NFL, allowing 155.2 yards per game. See Cowboys-Texans, if The Loser knew this, my still take the Seahawks who gave up 223 yards rushing?
Dolphins -3 over CHARGERS – Chargers, 23-17 – The Chargers threw Steve Cohen-money to shore up the defense and it’s been a bad investment. So of course, they hold the vaunted Fish offense to 219 yards in total offense.
THURSDAY NIGHT
49ers -3 over SEAHAWKS – The Loser almost NEVER goes against a Thursday night home dog. Almost never. But the Seahawks have been outrushed, 838-240, in their last four games, losing three.
So yes, the Niners are going with a rookie QB. And yes, this is a must-win for Seattle if it wants to make the playoffs. We simply can’t take a team that can’t run the ball and can’t stop it. Boring, but true.
With that in mind, The Loser, despite the above pick, which had meager odds, took the Seahawks getting +3.5 points at BetMGM and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (questionable knee) to rush for more than 94.5 yards rushing. We could have taken the 49ers giving 3.5 and CMC to rush for more than 94.5 but the odds were +300.
We took the Seahawks +3.5 and got +550. We wagered $30 for a payout of $195, which means The Loser will net $165. San Fran backup RB Elijah Mitchell is on IR and WR/RB Deebo Samuel (knee/ankle) is out about three weeks, so CMC gets the load.
HOME team in CAPS
Last Week: 6-7; Best Bets: 1-2
Overall: 95-84-4; +Best bets: 20-16