The writing was on the wall. Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh’s loyalty to offensive coordinator Greg Roman may not have been the chief issue along the Chesapeake Bay, but at some point, unproductive offenses have a boiling point. Superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson’s future with the team is in doubt, and a poorly designed passing game hasn’t helped. At some point, Harbaugh had to choose between himself and his long-time offensive coordinator.
He chose correctly.
That isn’t to diminish what Roman has done during his time in Baltimore. He orchestrated an offense that played host to an unanimous MVP. One can argue no organization could have incorporated Jackson better. Still, the NFL is an ever-evolving landscape, and Roman’s offense has faded. Yes, there were personnel and injury issues; but an offense with elite talents like Jackson and Mark Andrews cannot stagnate without consequences.
The first question of the Ravens’ offseason has been answered. The biggest one remains. Will Jackson stay a Raven?
Will the Ravens keep Lamar Jackson?
The Baltimore braintrust has a few options in front of it–none of which are superior to simply keeping their star. Of course, there are risks involved with Jackson due to his durability. I’m not particularly concerned with “running quarterbacks” being a health risk, but he’s missed five games in each of the past two seasons. It has likely played a role in determining the amount of guaranteed money Jackson will receive/accept.
Make no mistake, Jackson is very, very good. His most ardent supporters likely rank him as a top four quarterback and the hardest player in the sport to game plan for. Even his critics, if at all sane, have him top 10. Personally, I think he falls somewhere between QB4 and QB8, in a tier with passers like Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow. If you want to bet on either of those quarterbacks, still kicking it in the Divisional Round, you should consider this promotion for Bet Basics readers: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.
Unfinished negotiations have forced the Ravens to explore trades, potentially surrendering themselves to the fate of a young, potentially rookie quarterback. While a star on a rookie deal is the optimal strategy for winning a Super Bowl, having and paying an elite quarterback is far and away the second-best strategy.
Losing Jackson means diving head-first into the abyss of quarterbacking uncertainty, a path that all too often leads to quarterback purgatory.
If Baltimore is to tag him, they’ll either hit him with the exclusive franchise tag or the non-exclusive franchise tag, which allows other teams to negotiate with Jackson, and can sign him while giving two first-round picks to Baltimore. It will be interesting to see how a potential franchise tag decision shapes his trade value.
DraftKings recently put out a post asking where Jackson will play his next regular season snap, if not with the Ravens. They list the New York Jets (+250) as favorites, followed by the Atlanta Falcons (+350), Las Vegas Raiders (+750), and Carolina Panthers (+750).
Frankly, there’s a reason the bet intentionally works around Baltimore–they’d be the heavy favorites to keep him. Putting -500 odds on a graphic doesn’t exactly stir up excitement or discussion. It’s a lesson in how sportsbooks operate and common sense in general. The Ravens know their best chance to win a Lombardi Trophy is on the coattails of Jackson. They’ll do everything in their power to keep him in black and purple, even if the contract talks haven’t gone as smoothly as they would have hoped.
BASIC TIPS
Futures bets (wagers on events such as awards, championship winners, statistical leaders, etc.) can offer lucrative odds, but they prey on the inherent uncertainty that comes with more time. You’re much more confident in what tomorrow holds than next year, and the sportsbooks are, too.
Sometimes, player and coach transactions will be the focus of a futures bet. Be wary of “bait bets” that exist simply to take advantage of hype. Listing the Jets as favorites to land Lamar acts to get fans excited, regardless of how realistic it is. Here, there is no edge to find; no advantage over the book. You don’t have to play their game.