Aaron Rodgers will not be the league MVP in 2022. Cross his name off your shortlist. His fairly universal +1000 odds are a mere due diligence from the sportsbooks to avoid any apocalyptic scenarios in which the Green Bay Packers go undefeated. If he makes me look as stupid as he’s looked for the past year, so be it. Betting on a Rodgers MVP campaign means expecting him to be the second back-to-back-to-back MVP winner in league history.
The road to get there has never been more tough.
Winning MVP largely means two boxes are checked off: your team is awesome and your stats are even better. A narrative award, being able to say “Rodgers was the best player on the best team” holds more weight than just about anything else. With that comes a production profile complete with efficiency metrics and volume stats.
With Green Bay’s cast of characters out wide, I wouldn’t be so confident. Losing a superstar like Davante Adams is always a significant slash to a roster, but without any semblance of a top target, the Packers’ passing attack gets messy…at best.
Are the Packers good enough to have an MVP?
Allen Lazard is the presumptive top target for Rodgers. He has inside-out versatility and can impact multiple levels of the field, but isn’t particularly efficient or threatening. He’s not the type of guy to force defenses into two-high with his speed or draw double teams. Sammy Watkins is a non-factor and Randall Cobb may be the most overrated player in the history of the sport. Rodgers is enamored with the slot receiver from his golden days, but don’t be fooled; Cobb has a single 1,000-yard season to his name and it came eight years ago.
As a result, the Packers may turn to rookies for production. Both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have outside shots at becoming mainstays atop a receiving corps, and they’ll both see playing time early in their careers. Neither are great bets to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but there’s only so many snaps Watkins can take before the coaching staff gives the young bucks a shot.
The Packers have every reason to run the ball a ton. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are an elite combination. They complement each other very well and only get more dangerous come playoff time. Go tackle Dillon when you’re 80% of the way to frostbite. See what happens. We’ll likely see higher run rates than we’re used to out of Green Bay and a wider portion of targets given to the running backs. With the surplus of talent on that offensive line and the lack of talent in the receiver room, I can’t say I blame them.
A factor working in Rodgers’ favor is the likelihood his team finds itself atop the NFC or at least pretty damn close. They are easy favorites to win the NFC North thanks to Rodgers and a defense that is, in the most technical terms possible, really stinkin’ good. There are stars at every level with Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, and Jaire Alexander wreaking havoc. They’ve got an elite secondary and more importantly, no weakness. Green Bay can rush the passer, stop the run, and cover as well as anybody.
There’s a plan in place for the Packers to make some noise in the NFC. If Rodgers can continue to dice up defenses with arguably the worst set of targets he’s had, they can moonwalk their way to a division title. If not, an offense trending towards mediocrity can spoil cheese quicker than a California power outage. Will they be enough to support a third consecutive MVP campaign?
Green Bay through a betting lens
Currently, FanDuel is offering -160 odds on the Packers to surpass 10.5 wins and +135 to fall under that mark. Detractors will see value in the under, presuming those targets tank their season (and they don’t trade for a wide receiver before the deadline). However, with other books setting the line at 11 wins, taking FanDuel’s over becomes a little easier.
The NFC North is not shaping up to be a full-fledged race to the end. For a first place schedule, they avoid long stretches against playoff teams. And by the way, they’ll probably have the quarterback advantage in every single game. Six losses is a lot of leeway for a team that’s won 13 games in each of the last three seasons.
Of course, Rodgers remains the reason Green Bay is a true Super Bowl competitor. While I don’t think he is the MVP, he’s certainly taking the title home within the clubhouse. While Jordan Love waits in the wings, expect Rodgers to have another strong season.
No team is asking more from their running backs in Green Bay, and it should parlay into sizable production. Speaking of parlays, DraftKings is offering a pre-built parlay for Jones to break 800 rush yards and Dillon to punch it in a half-dozen times on the ground. With +280 odds, they’re giving us the opportunity to cash in on props that feel like inevitabilities.
The Packers’ host of talented defenders also opens some interesting possibilities. Alexander has never caught more than two interceptions in a year as a profession. This could be the year that changes. With a strong secondary and coverage linebackers, quarterbacks will be forced to throw into unappealing windows at a high rate. That bodes well for Alexander, who’s been avoided by opposing quarterbacks. FanDuel’s -112 odds on over 2.5 interceptions is good value.
Additionally, Doubs and Watson have seen their OROY odds intertwine like shoelaces. Currently, Doubs is a step ahead, with +1100 odds compared to Watson’s +1600. The head start he got in training camp has put him ahead, but a healthy Watson is a big play threat that could win Rodgers over. If I were picking between the two, Watson, the better blocker, wins out.
The BetBasics Best Bet can be found on BetMGM. There, +140 odds are offered on the consensus projection of Green Bay in first and Minnesota in second. A lot has to go wrong for both teams in order for this not to hit. Rodgers and Cousins are clearly the best quarterbacks in the division, yet are not close in quality. The same can be said for their defenses. Take the plus money and trust that what should happen, will happen.
Green Bay will always be a title contender with a healthy Rodgers at the helm. The perpetual threat of an NFC Conference Game loss looms large, but Rodgers and co. are used to the pressure.
If he can survive the hallucinogens, wacky romances, and his personal “remedies,” he can survive a lackluster receiving corps. If it’s his last dance and he knows it, there may not be anything capable of stopping him.