Cole KmetDavid NjokuGarrett WilsonNFL Week 11Parris Campbell

Nick’s Picks NFL Week 11: Longshot TD Parlay turns up the volume

It’s Week 11 and time is ticking. Our bad luck with Sunday touchdown scorers has to come to an end right? Eventually? We can only be snakebitten for so long. We’ve tried the longest of longshots, some safer plays, and just about everything in between. Well this week we are going to trust the volume and pick players with plenty of opportunities. Four players. Four touchdowns. Four games in the early window. Let’s win one, finally. 

**All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**

 

 

The following bets are for each player to score a touchdown at any time during the game. They must either receive or run the ball into the end zone, as passing touchdowns do not count. If you want to bet these picks as single bets, then a $100 bet on the Garrett Wilson touchdown just below would win $280. 

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) +280

We kick it off with Garrett Wilson of the surprising New York Jets. Touchdown scorers have a ton of value in this game thanks to a low total of 38.5. Typically a Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team would take away the opponent’s top weapon, but does that mean Wilson in this case, or does it even matter? Belichick will want to force the Jets to beat his team through the air, putting the outcome squarely on the shoulders of Zach Wilson. However, the Wilson-to-Wilson connection has been strong and the receiver just had six catches for 115 yards against the Patriots just a few weeks ago. Then he followed it up with eight catches for 92 yards against the mighty Bills. The rookie that is almost always opened hasn’t scored since Week 2 in Cleveland and is in prime position to get there this week in a must win game for New York. 

Parris Campbell (IND) +360

In the last three games with Matt Ryan as the starter for the Colts, Parris Campbell has been targeted a ton. Just how much you might ask? How about 11-12-9 to be exact? Even better, Campbell has found the end zone in each of those three games. The Eagles are once again without their slot cornerback Avonte Maddox, who is on injured reserve and Campbell gets most of his work out of the slot, lining up there almost 74% of the time. At +360, the value is just too great to pass up. 

Cole Kmet (CHI) +290

Over the last three weeks, Cole Kmet has scored five (!!) touchdowns. That’s right. Five. In a Bears’ offense that is almost allergic to throwing the ball at times, Kmet has received at least six targets in back to back weeks. He gets to face off against a Falcons’ defense that is far from great. With Justin Fields playing out of his mind, let’s see Kmet find pay dirt again. 

David Njoku (CLE) +420

Welcome back David Njoku. The Browns’ tight end only has one touchdown on the year, but the volume is what we’re after here. Njoku is almost guaranteed to get meaningful snaps in the red zone, and has been targeted often by Jacoby Brissett. Outside of a quiet Week 1, Njoku is having a career year that was unfortunately derailed by an ankle injury. If it wasn’t for that, he wouldn’t be +420 to score. His volume alone makes this yet another worthy pick.  

Parlay +35349

This week’s parlay pays a whopping +35349, meaning a $100 bet would return an absurd $35,349. Now that would be a great start to the holiday season. It might be the only way those holiday car commercials make sense too. Considering all four players are heavily involved in each offense, getting +35349 is incredible. Sometimes there are bets that are speculative, that we hope each player will be involved. In this case, we know they will and have a proven track record of taking advantage of opportunity. Get excited, we are cashing this one. 

A parlay is when we are betting on multiple outcomes in hopes of winning a bigger payout. In order to win all the cash, we need to go four-for-four on these picks.

author
Nick Brinkerhoff
Sports Journalist
Hello there, I’m Nick Brinkerhoff, a New Jersey native with enough sarcasm and attitude to show I’m not from New York. Despite being Jersey born and bred, I’m a diehard New York sports fan (Jets, Nets, Rangers, Mets) who has seen plenty of losing, but my sports betting ability will hopefully continue to balance those scales. I have season tickets to the Jets but believe it to be more character building than bad asset management. Althoug
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