Every year, fans and analysts alike spend months tinkering with their projections and rankings to best accommodate the incoming rookie class. Overlooking schematic conflicts of summertime struggles can lend itself to striking out on one of the most valuable opportunities in every draft. If you can hit on the often-discounted rookies, you’ve set yourself up for success.
So far, fantasy managers are hitting at a high enough clip to win the batting title. The wide receivers are off to the races and a good proportion of the highly-anticipated backs have found success too. Dueling on the gridiron and our most used apps, these rookies have made their marks on an entertaining Offensive Rookie of the Year race. Who’s leading the pack after Week 3’s action?
The Favorites
Every week, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London comes out and produces. Like clockwork, a rookie has a good enough day to match him. No neophyte has been able to mirror his consistency so far. He’s instantly become the top option out wide and has the target share to back it up. The mere idea that others are being compared to him each week is evidence enough that he’s a solid favorite for the award. Sitting at +500 via DraftKings, there’s still time to quintuple your winnings. Spend $100 and win $500 if London takes home the award.
His most recent challenger is New Orleans Saints deep threat, Chris Olave. Perhaps no one epitomizes that home run hitting mentality more. Olave has the most targeted air yards in football with 536, 168 more than the runner up. If that wasn’t crazy enough, the difference between him and second place (Diontae Johnson) is the difference between Johnson and Breshad Perriman. The Buccaneers depth option is 41st in the league in air yards.
Olave fits beautifully into the three-level concepts New Orleans loves to run. The only problem is Jameis Winston. The passer has struggled mightily this season, dampening Olave’s back-to-back 13 target games. If they begin to connect, watch out. We could have a legendarily explosive OROY candidate on our hands. He shares +500 odds with London.
The Risers and Fallers
Week 3 left fantasy managers flustered with an unproductive slate of games, but a handful of rookies still made their mark. Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce had his best week yet, accumulating 80 yards and a score on 20 carries. He’s assumed the role most had penciled him in for, overtaking Rex Burkhead. From a production standpoint, there’s no reason why he can’t be the top back from his class in year one. The volume will be there, and Houston is feisty enough to keep the game script viable. His odds currently stand at +1000.
In what was an otherwise low-scoring affair, Romeo Doubs proved himself useful in Week 3. He’s gone from long shot to favorite to overhyped to long shot. He’s back in the fold as a true contender for OROY. Aaron Rodgers targeted Doubs eight times, connecting on each attempt and generating 73 yards and a score. If Rodgers is going to continue to hone in on his supposed favorite youngster, a lot more targets could be on the horizon. Doubs’ +800 odds are a little rich for me at the moment, but he’s one to keep an eye on.
Unfortunately, this upwards movement naturally comes with someone falling down the ranks. New York Jets wideout Garrett Wilson came back down to Earth after Week 2’s heroics. He was less efficient and held out of the end zone as the Jets pantsed themselves in MetLife.
His odds have fallen to +1200, an intriguing mark. With Zach Wilson set to return, New York’s offense is headed for a shakeup. If Wilson^2 can find chemistry quickly, you may not get better odds the rest of the season.
The Dark Horse
Despite an unimpressive showing on the ground, James Cook provides interesting value at +3500. He only saw a single rush in Week 3 but his five targets helped showcase some big-play material. He’s already received as many as 11 rushes in a game, and the Buffalo Bills are no stranger to a revolving door of backs. If Cook can grab a hold of the team’s rushes and maintain his third-down presence, he’ll have a chance to make some noise on a dangerous Bills team.
BASIC TIPS
Betting on awards like OROY are often considered “futures.” They are fairly simple to place, but require more patience than your typical straight bets. In the case of this article, we may take London’s +500 odds to win the award because we feel the books will make him a larger favorite in the coming weeks. We’ll have to deal with the loss of a unit (a uniform amount of money one places per bet) and sit with it for a few months. If you’re willing to take the short-term hit to your bankroll (amount you have available to spend in a sportsbook), there are many intriguing long-term options.