The best weekend in football didn’t disappoint. The injuries to Patrick Mahomes and Tony Pollard challenged fate. Josh Allen came up average in the biggest game of the season, prompting questions about the Buffalo Bills’ front office and coaching staff. On the other hand, Joe Burrow found himself headed to a well-deserved trip to the conference game.
Four teams remain. What do their Super Bowl odds suggest?
Kansas City Chiefs
Best odds: +270 (BetMGM)
Shortest odds: +250 (FanDuel)
For a moment, the loudest stadium in the country fell silent. Regardless of supporting cast or coaching, having the universe’s best player is an advantage no team can take away. Mahomes is the Kansas City Chiefs, and they’ll go as far as he takes them.
He’ll be tasked with taking home a second championship on a bum ankle. Deemed a high ankle sprain, Mahomes returned to action during Saturday’s 27-20 victory. His ailments were overly apparent–the game plan changed, as did his body language. I’m still not sure why they ran so much from under center.
Regardless, the books remain fairly confident in Kansas City. At BetMGM, where their most lucrative odds can be found, a $100 bet could net $270 in profit. The Chiefs still have the best or second-best shot, according to the books.
From this, we should expect Mahomes to play. Serious doubts about his short-term future would’ve been reflected in longer odds, especially against such a good quarterback visiting town. Playing on Sunday could raise questions about morals, labor, and safety, but there’s no way they hold him out of a conference championship game. Vegas trusts that a bad ankle won’t turn him into a bad ankle.
Philadelphia Eagles
Best odds: +260 (Caesars)
Shortest odds: +250 (DraftKings)
We shouldn’t be inflating the Philadelphia Eagles’ status for their performance on Saturday. They simply took care of business.
Philadelphia’s coaching was better than the New York Giants’. They are a far more talented team. In the end, it showed. By halftime, the Eagles had a lead virtually impossible to overcome, and the Giants predictably saw their season end.
Philly will be tested against a San Francisco 49ers roster that’s as stacked as they are. At home, the birds are favored. No book expects the 49ers to win the conference.
Both teams dominate on the ground and boast elite defenses. They’re both very well-coached on either side of the ball. Whether it be a fading confidence in Brock Purdy or a testament to the trench play of Philadelphia, Vegas has picked their favorite.
Take these lines as a reason to trust the Eagles’ coaching staff. Kyle Shanahan has shown time and time again that he’s the most important offensive mind in the sport, raising the irrelevant and shaping offenses around the league. It would be easy to believe a timeline in which this offensive mastermind picks apart a defense that, while well-coached, is not immune from faulty game plans.
The Eagles’ Penny and Tite fronts that use five men on the line of scrimmage was supposed to be a dominating front against the run. It relied on rookie Jordan Davis, the massive nose tackle who headlined an elite Georgia defense. Instead, this unit underperformed against the run multiple times, while not making up for it against the pass. Philadelphia was forced to use four-man fronts more often than they intended to? Will they stick with it on Sunday or sell out against San Francisco’s run game?
The books think Jonathan Gannon will make the right choice.
Cincinnati Bengals
Best odds: +280 (PointsBet)
Shortest odds: +260 (FanDuel)
A few weeks ago, I called the Cincinnati Bengals the best bet to win the Super Bowl. Since, they’ve beaten a division rival and a Bills team that seemed to hoard preseason Super Bowl bets. Cincinnati may have squeaked past a Baltimore Ravens team without its starting quarterback, but their Divisional Round victory was dominant from the start.
Thus, it’s surprising to see the Bengals lag behind Kansas City in the odds department. Sure, Burrow isn’t Mahomes. Nobody is. But there’s no opportunity to better come out ahead than next week. Mahomes’ injury will make an appearance at some point. Cincinnati’s defense is good enough to take advantage of it.
While Kansas City’s odds tell us not to overreact, there’s a reason the Bengals are only 1.5-point underdogs. The Chiefs obviously have the advantage at tight end, where Travis Kelce just saw 17 targets, and offensive line, where they boast two All-Pro Second Team selections. Everywhere else, Cincinnati can come out ahead.
You’re essentially picking a winner on Sunday, and while no book is more confident in the Bengals to run the table, this game’s a toss up. Expect it to play out that way.
San Francisco 49ers
Best odds: +330 (DraftKings)
Shortest odds: +300 (BetMGM)
San Francisco’s Super Bowl odds can be deceiving. Yes, they own the worst line of the remaining teams. However, the fact that this line is at +330, and not +500 or worse, is a vote of confidence.
Vegas may not love Purdy as much as the fans clamoring for him to start next season, but they aren’t treating him like a rookie. You shouldn’t either.
Shanahan’s impact cannot be understated, and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is equipped to take on a challenging Eagles offense. Philadelphia carves out yards by continuously putting defenders in conflict and optimizing a mobile quarterback. No team has a more athletic defense than San Francisco.
There’s no denying that winning a Super Bowl with a 7th-round quarterback is a challenge. But the books are telling us that it, without a doubt, is possible. If that’s a bet worth making, make sure you use DraftKings’ promotion for Bet Basics readers: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.
BASIC TIPS
This article frequently refers to Super Bowl bets, which are a type of futures selection. Futures are simply bets placed on more distant outcomes than things like a team’s next game. They include statistical leaders, season-long win totals, and awards, too. It’s important to try and bet futures at the apex of their value: before odds change for the worst, and after enough information has been collected to confidently choose a winner.