The lessons we learn from bad experiences may not define our childhood, but they certainly make a lasting impact. Remember that one Christmas, the one where you finally got the gift you’ve been asking all year for, only to break it? We’ve all been there, even the Chicago Bears.
Each step in Chicago’s rebuild brings them closer to breaking the gift that is former 11th overall pick, Justin Fields.
Few teams have the targets, coaching staff, and offensive line to properly welcome a quarterback. The 2021 Chicago Bears had none of them. Somehow, they staggered their way to a 6-11 record.
Head coach Matt Nagy’s reign of incompetence finally came to a close after the troubling 2021 campaign. It turns out a quarterback that can only run curl-flat wasn’t the only thing holding him back (good luck in Pittsburgh, Trubisky). Running identical offenses with Andy Dalton and Fields worked out about as well as you’d expect.
From bad to worse
On paper, Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson looked to give the rookie a boost. Mooney has developed into a legitimate receiving threat, but Robinson’s regression, regardless of the reason, didn’t assist Fields as much as the Bears anticipated.
Additionally, it’d be easy to say a lot of mean things about Chicago’s offensive line. I’ll give them a break by informing you that they had the highest adjusted sack percentage in football, per FootballOutsiders.
At least there was nowhere to go but up, right? Of course not.
Chicago undeniably got worse this year, trading star Khalil Mack and losing Robinson to free agency. The roster turnover is admirable from a rebuilding standpoint, but Fields struggled mightily at times last season. He’s got all the talent in the world, but an inferior on-field product only hurts his development.
One thing the Bears do have going in their favor is their new coaching staff. By adding Matt Eberflus to man the ship and Luke Getsy to bring a Green Bay-flavored offense to Chicago, Fields will be put in positions to win, even if it isn’t coming from the front office.
Players and coaches don’t tank. Front offices do.
Even if the defensive talent isn’t as high-profile, acquiring names like Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon will help round out a secondary and add upside to their pass defense. If they can convince linebacker Roquan Smith to stick around, even better.
This year’s Bears roster is built to take a beating and return with lucrative draft capital, and Vegas is well aware. How should we approach our Bears bets in 2022?
Looking at Chicago through a betting lens
At this point, I just feel bad for Fields. The makeshift offensive line is complete with not-so-highly touted youngsters and underwhelming veterans. It’s never a good sign when your starting quarterback is talking about anticipating adversity from the men bound to protect him. Frankly, the only thing that’d make me competent in the Bears surpassing the six wins (DraftKings) set for them would be a supernova season from Fields. Though I like the former Buckeye, it’s hard to see that in store for 2022.
If it’s any consolation, no matter the record, Eberflus won’t win the “worst leader in Chicago” award. That one belongs to runaway champion Tony La Russa.
Fields, obviously, is the most important player in the organization. He’ll likely be blessed with a third year of starting before the Bears potentially look for his replacement. In the meantime, things are really messy. Fields’ total projections are low, and for good reason. Fields was woefully unproductive last year. In order to clear his 3,350.5 passing yards line, he’ll have to increase his yards per game by more than 40 yards per game. Doing that in a run heavy offense, with a poor offensive line and a tendency to put oneself in danger, makes that an easy under selection.
It’s possible the only other bright spot on this side of the football is Mooney. In what feels like a year eerily similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s in Detroit, I’d recommend a similar course of action. FanDuel has Mooney listed with -118 odds to surpass 925.5 receiving yards. At that point, I’d rather go all in. There’s plus money on the table for Mooney to clear 1,000 yards. If you’re in on the duo, take those odds and run.
Moreover, finding lines on Bears’ defenders might be difficult. Finding lines on almost former Bears gets a little easier. Smith’s future with Chicago may be uncertain, but his talent isn’t. FanDuel lists him as the favorite to lead the league in tackles and assists, at +500. He’s talented, athletic, and in the middle of a defense that should see a disproportionate amount of time on the field.
While no rookies stand out as favorites for any awards, the previously referenced Braxton Jones could have a significant role in his team’s success, as well as an additional Fields prop. Currently, DraftKings is offering -140 odds on Fields to score more than 3.5 rushing touchdowns. With Fields’ big play ability, he’s always a missed tackle away from gaining on that number and if Jones shows out, the boost to the run game has a similar effect.
The BetBasics Best Bet for the Bears is the under on David Montgomery’s rushing yards total of 900.5 (-115 on DraftKings). Montgomery, the subject of the most heinous college football graphic of all time, is a talented runner entering a contract year. As it could very likely be in Chicago’s best interest to let him walk come March, there isn’t a ton of motivation to keep him on the field Khalil Herbert is a more dynamic alternative who should see increasing touches as the year goes on. To add, the offensive line is porous and negative game scripts dampen much of his appeal. With so many forces acting against him, it’s hard to rationalize a big year from the back.
Ultimately, fading the 2022 Bears is probably the smartest way to use your money. Assuming a coaching change will immediately cure Fields’ faults and elevate his play to a truly meaningful level is irresponsible, especially given the state of the roster.
The Bears are bad, they are built to be bad, and by the accounts of most non-Bears-based analysts, will be bad. Don’t get stuck in the bear trap of optimism, chasing idealist dreams of a franchise quarterback. Trust me, it will only break your heart, and more importantly, your wallet.
Fields flashed last year and is likely to do so again. His strong preseason is encouraging, but there are few other ways to put it. Chicago left him out to dry. It’s up to him to bear that burden, save the franchise, and spoil some unders.