Post Combine NFL Mock Draft: Forecasting April’s Chaos

As the NFL Scouting Combine winds down and executives leave Indianapolis with confirmed priors and new risers, the offseason outlook has changed. Through medicals, drills, and interviews, we now have a better idea of what to make of this draft class.

For one, it’s incredibly athletic, essentially across the board. It is also stocked with quarterback talent at the top, albeit some risky selections. Bryce Young’s size will scare off some teams, as will Anthony Richardson’s production (or lack thereof) and Will Levis’ proclivity for taking sacks. Yet, desperation is a powerful drug, and the idea of a franchise quarterback is often a worthy gamble, regardless of how it works out.

This mock draft takes a look at what I think will happen as of the pajama olympics’ final day. What I do know is that you’ll enjoy this mock more than the other one gracing our insights page today: that of Lenn Robbins. He’s falsely accused me of heinous drinking habits, while he knows my order of choice is an Irish Creme latte. Wherever our mock drafts differ, you can assume he’s lying there, too. 

Post NFL Combine 1st Round Mock Draft

Mock Draft Analysis

1. IND (via CHI): Young’s the best fit in the new head coach’s offense, taking precedence over the physical concerns his frame presents. Everything in the profile screams franchise quarterback except for the size. Jumping Houston for QB1 should be considered worth the risk. The trade includes 4, 35, a 2024 1st and 3rd, and a 2025 2nd.
2. HOU: Houston desperately needs stability and leadership from the quarterback position. Stroud provides that. He can start from the jump and offers arguably the highest floor of the passers in this class.
3. ARI: Just a few years ago, Arizona passed on the best players in the draft to find their quarterback. This time, the class’ top talent falls to three. Anderson should walk into the building as the team’s best pass rusher and adds another explosive talent to their young defense.
4. CHI (via IND): While disappointed about missing out on the top talent they could have selected, Tyree Wilson is an exceptional consolation prize. Taking a chance on a freakish edge rusher is a solid strategy, especially when they have a trove of draft capital in their back pocket.
5. SEA (via DEN): Thanks to the highway robbery of a Russell Wilson trade, Seattle has both a talented roster and a top pick. Given their roster’s timeline, I’m not sure a quarterback makes too much sense, especially a project. Anticipate them taking the best player available, which in this case is Carter.
6. DET (via LAR): Talk about a perfect landing spot. Richardson isn’t as raw as you may think, and might possess more upside. A year behind Jared Goff to adjust to the NFL game and an awesome supporting cast, both wearing shoulder pads and headsets, mitigates the perceived risks of taking the gunslinger.
7. LVR: The Raiders aren’t going into a season with Jarrett Stidham as QB1. If the answer isn’t a middling veteran option, a strong-armed quarterback who can push the ball downfield to Davante Adams and Darren Waller opens up a lot of things for Josh McDaniels.
8. ATL: Few defenses lack competent starters like the Falcons. The league is higher on Murphy than I am, but no one can deny his incredible measurables and athleticism. A front-line starter at EDGE to add to iDL and CB gives them another cornerstone that they won’t have to worry about replacing; unlike just about everything else.
9. CAR: Missing out on the rookie quarterback sweepstakes stinks, so they may opt for the second-best avenue to success: developing a nurturing landing spot for an eventual neophyte. The Carolina offensive line is already strong, but throwing in perhaps the draft’s top offensive lineman to their interior gives them the upside of a potential unit up front.
10. PHI (via NO): The rich get richer. Howie Roseman ran circles around the league in the past calendar year, and now he continues to bear the fruits of his labor. Gonzalez is my favorite corner in the class, and after his stellar combine, probably yours, too. Their current set of boundary corners are talented, but a little older. In the name of sustained success, they’ll knock this pick out of the park.
11. TEN: One of the most prominent team needs throughout this offseason will be the Titans’ cripping need for offensive line help. Johnson is a highly-touted tackle that can step in at left tackle and give them a sense of confidence that their 500 rush per game strategy is still viable. It isn’t–but Johnson eases the transition into a modern day NFL offense, too.
12. HOU (via CLE): It’s poetic, isn’t it? Much like the Bengals pairing Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase, Houston gets their chance to give Stroud his favorite collegiate receiver. I struggle with the idea that JSN will ever be as dominant as an elite talent like Chase, but his agility numbers give hope that he’ll dominate over the middle of the field.
13. NYJ: At this point, we know how Joe Douglas likes to build his rosters. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out just yet. Sinking another pick into the offensive line may feel like a waste of time, but throwing Jones onto a line with Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker provides them with a balance of technical refinement and physical dominance.
14. NE: Unfortunately for the rest of us, New England may figure out how to use first-round selections effectively. Witherspoon not only fills a need that greatly hindered their pass defense, he offers elite upside, too. Witherspoon is a physical defensive back and one of the best run defenders this cornerback class can boast.
15. GB: He’s not a perfect fit for their fairly rigorous size thresholds, but if anyone can change their minds, it’s Smith. His combine was historical–he’s the heaviest player to ever cross the 4.40 barrier. A defense with Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Rashan Gary, and Quay Walker already has enough athleticism to shrink offensive opportunities. Raising the ceiling of their pass rush helps combat the improving offensive lines brewing across the division.
16. WAS: Let us thank the Commanders for saving us from Porter falling to Pittsburgh, where his father played. The draft coverage would be insufferable, as would be the paternal analysis that doesn’t actually have any bearing on his success. For their services, they get an exciting corner prospect for a room in desperate need of one. 
17. PIT: The catalyst for Najee Harris’ and Kenny Pickett’s struggles were frequently one in the same last season: crappy offensive line play. Wright doesn’t have as much hype as some of the other tackles in this class, but let his SEC film tell the story. Some team is going to fall in love with Wright.
18. DET: Branch falling this far may align more with my board than most others preparing for the draft, but there’s no slam dunk fit for Branch that I feel particularly strongly about missing. I’m not sure if he’s going to eventually play at corner or safety, but Detroit can use either.
19. TB: There’s no quarterback left to reasonably take this early, and unless they ship out a star receiver, a third option likely doesn’t get first-round priority. I think Tampa Bay understands their offensive overhaul won’t happen overnight and believes in the notion that a dominant unit can carry a defense. Adding the talented Ojulari to a defensive front with Vita Vea increases the chances of that unit’s return to prominence.
20. SEA: Like the Carter pick, Seattle is in a luxurious spot of simply taking the top player on their board. The Seahawks offense was stronger than most anticipated last season, especially when their young tackles showed up. Throwing in another high-level receiving threat only makes life easier both for (presumably) Geno Smith and the eventual franchise quarterback they welcome into the fold.
21. LAC: This one feels like one of those picks that could have been penciled in months ago. Quentin Johnston isn’t the generational talent he was portrayed as during parts of this cycle, but the speed was never lied about. In an offense that’s actually willing to throw the ball past the sticks, a burner like Johnston opens up possibilities Justin Herbert hasn’t seen since his rookie season.
22. HOU (via BAL): Much like the Jets adding Breece Hall last season, adding the undisputed best player at a given position is frequently a way to hook general managers in. Similar to Michael Carter, Dameon Pierce had a good year, but wasn’t enough to totally ignore a generational running back prospect. Robinson gives them the best chance at having the draft’s top player at three positions. The trade in this case is 33 and 73 for 22.
23. MIN: I was inclined to go linebacker here, especially after the release of Eric Kendricks. However, this team is devoid of interior defensive line talent. I don’t think Bresee is a finished product, but a high-ceiling defensive lineman is a fit for this Minnesota team. They were embarrassed in the playoffs, showcasing their need for a difference maker on that side of the ball. It may not be immediate but there is a path to wreaking havoc.
24. JAX: Smith was one of the combine’s biggest winners, sporting a 4.45 40 and good explosiveness. He has the ball skills and athleticism to play in the slot, where Jacksonville can stand to acquire talent. Don’t be surprised if they add a complementary back on day two, but for now they focus on defense.
25. NYG: Simpson is likely the top linebacker off the board. His athleticism is off the charts, headlined by a 4.43 40, but he’s gained a reputation for his intangibles and versatility, too. Have you checked in on the Giants’ linebackers anytime in the past…decade? It isn’t pretty. 
26. DAL: If you’re going to pay your running backs as much as Dallas is, you better invest in the run game. At 26, that comes in the form of Washington, the draft’s physically-impossible tight end. He’s easily the best run blocking tight end to come out of the draft in some time. As a receiving threat, there’s progress to be made, but the athleticism is enticing. 
27. BUF: The Bills are in an interesting spot. Their defense let them down last year, but we’ve also seen the pitfalls of “let Josh Allen figure it out.” He makes them contenders, but finding the right pieces to surround him is imperative to a Super Bowl run. A trustworthy, dynamic receiver like Zay Flowers adds another dimension to this offense. He lets Gabe Davis be the main vertical threat and can haul in middle-of-the-field targets when Stefon Diggs isn’t the right read.
28. CIN: One of my favorite fits in this class is Kincaid to a McVay-tree offense that can support the frequent usage of option routes, where the Utah tight end is at his best. He gives the Bengals yet another receiving threat to concern defenses, and likely does enough as a blocker despite his size.
29. NO (via SF, DEN): The run on tight ends continues with my favorite in the entire class. He’s not a game-breaking athlete, but no one in this class fills the prototypical tight end spot more consistently than Mayer. He’ll be a reliable target for Derek Carr and should have an immediate impact as a day one starter.
30. ARI (via PHI): After trading 34, 104, and a future 5, Arizona helps address a top priority of the offseason–keeping Kyler Murray upright. The last thing they need is his return from an ACL tear to be treacherous thanks to poor play up front. I trust Philadelphia to make the most of their (now two) second-round picks and happily add a fourth rounder, as they previously did not have a pick in that round. 
31. KC: The Chiefs did not franchise tag Orlando Brown Jr., which is telling. They believe in their ability to develop offensive line talent and don’t need to spend upwards of $15 million to do so. Harrison, a riser in this draft cycle, offers them both youth and athleticism to mold. 

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